Consensus PnL -$76K · win rate 51% (2566–2471, n=5037) · was PM monthly #995 · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-75.7K
Record
2566W / 2471L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 5037 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1679
Source
PM monthly #995
Trades
11,342
Markets
6,881
Volume
$5.7M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 27 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $961 · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $920 · now 92¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $906 · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?No $899 · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?No $882 · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $880 · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?No $878 · now 96¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No $854 · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
Specialties
2,086 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 61¢- Tennis
+60 pts
side won 99% of 114 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +44%
- Soccer
+36 pts
side won 99% of 1725 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +34%
- Crypto
+38 pts
side won 100% of 161 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +10%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 95% of 140)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 99% of 517)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 99% of 662)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 100% of 767)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.