Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$3.1K
$404.89
83.4¢ → 96¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
253h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DF DFV2 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$199.58 | 91% 198-19 (217) |
LA LaarsY | Noavg 85¢ | $804.61 | $898.96 | +$103.82 | 51% 3435-3355 (6790) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 79.1¢ | $402.29 | $488.49 | +$86.2 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 87.1¢ | $139.19 | $153.37 | +$14.18 | 87% 149-22 (171) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $5.56 | $6.67 | +$1.11 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
Invested
$1,333.7
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$199.58
Record
91%
198-19 (217)
Invested
$804.61
Value
$898.96
PnL
+$103.82
Record
51%
3435-3355 (6790)
Invested
$402.29
Value
$488.49
PnL
+$86.2
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$139.19
Value
$153.37
PnL
+$14.18
Record
87%
149-22 (171)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$1.11
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.