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Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 53% (37–33, n=70) · PM monthly #614 · holds 3 consensus positions
0xc5478724...c33c2d63Polymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$26.2K
Record
37W / 33L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 70 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1592
Source
PM monthly #614
Trades
18
Markets
102
Volume
$462.1K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $1.6K · now 35¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes $145 · now 30¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (No)
- Will LYON win Worlds 2026?Yes $35 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
46 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 60¢- Esports
+38 pts
side won 97% of 38 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +33%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 93% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 100% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.