Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 70.5¢

+51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares14,127

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,980

Combined PnL-$354.54

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

301h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 44.5¢	$4.8K	$7.7K	+$2.8K	73% 350-129 (479)
StupidMonkeyyy	Noavg 54.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$247.15	50% 146-145 (291)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10.85	47% 474-534 (1008)
RO rocky42019	Noavg 48.8¢	$205.61	$416.24	+$210.63	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 53.5¢	$319.96	$328.02	+$8.06	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
MaktManCTR	Yesavg 66¢	$330	$145	-$182.5	50% 51-50 (101)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 66¢	$246.87	$124.72	-$122.15	38% 20-32 (52)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$75.71	$77.75	+$2.05	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 63¢	$126	$58	-$67	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$13.78	$42.05	+$28.28	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.55	+$0.03	50% 7969-8009 (15978)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.5¢	$0.99	$0.68	-$0.31	65% 526-281 (807)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$4,820.1

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

StupidMonkeyyy

Invested

$1,259.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$247.15

Record

50%

146-145 (291)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,400.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10.85

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

rocky42019

Invested

$205.61

Value

$416.24

PnL

+$210.63

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$319.96

Value

$328.02

PnL

+$8.06

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

MaktManCTR

Yes

Invested

$330

Value

$145

PnL

-$182.5

Record

50%

51-50 (101)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$246.87

Value

$124.72

PnL

-$122.15

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$75.71

Value

$77.75

PnL

+$2.05

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$126

Value

$58

PnL

-$67

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.78

Value

$42.05

PnL

+$28.28

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.31

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

301h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.