Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will LYON win Worlds 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $756 held · ends Nov 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$756.13

Combined PnL

-$535.36

Smart Money Entry

1.3¢ → 0.8¢

-41% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$756.13

Total Shares94,516

Combined PnL-$535.36

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

516h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

33 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$235	$237.63	-$7.4	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
FR frohp5CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$513.76	$205.5	-$320.76	65% 1991-1068 (3059)
ReformedxCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$170	$160	-$19.96	52% 839-788 (1627)
WarewaPainCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$73.01	$69.58	+$0.4	43% 466-611 (1077)
MaktManCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$39.09	$34.74	-$6.51	50% 51-50 (101)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$127.06	$32.06	-$162.26	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$4.43	$11.8	+$6.64	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$4.8	$4.8	-$25.5	57% 3069-2356 (5425)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$235

Value

$237.63

PnL

-$7.4

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

frohp5CTR

Yes

Invested

$513.76

Value

$205.5

PnL

-$320.76

Record

65%

1991-1068 (3059)

ReformedxCTR

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$160

PnL

-$19.96

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

WarewaPainCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.01

Value

$69.58

PnL

+$0.4

Record

43%

466-611 (1077)

MaktManCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.09

Value

$34.74

PnL

-$6.51

Record

50%

51-50 (101)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$127.06

Value

$32.06

PnL

-$162.26

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$6.64

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$25.5

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

516h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

33 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5346.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

5446.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.