Consensus PnL -$19K · win rate 60% (18–12, n=30) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-18.9K
Record
18W / 12L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 30 settled
Batting Avg
72.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1183
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
1,641
Markets
61
Volume
$425.9K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes $3.8K · now 89¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (52% of 23)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $1.6K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (85% of 41)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $269 · now 92¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?Yes $155 · now 3¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (No)
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes $32 · now 3¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
47 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 53¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where PoppingChairman's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 20% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 33% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 29% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 22)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.