Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $41K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$40.7K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 97.3¢

+17% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$39.9K

Total Shares41,065

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$792.82

Total Shares10,771

Combined PnL$-2.8K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 73% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Noavg 95.9¢	$18.5K	$18.0K	+$254.33	63% 353-204 (557)
ImJustKen	Noavg 68.8¢	$6.5K	$8.9K	+$2.4K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 79.9¢	$3.5K	$4.3K	+$757.44	89% 923-118 (1041)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 69.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$30.03	77% 1408-416 (1824)
wish-	Noavg 96.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.76	79% 1176-319 (1495)
LO Logan.	Noavg 31.5¢	$318.19	$983.6	+$665.41	41% 648-925 (1573)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 89.9¢	$911.34	$923.21	+$11.87	50% 415-417 (832)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 95.8¢	$634.24	$643.8	+$9.55	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$138.56	$588.62	+$119.53	55% 1191-966 (2157)
tja	Noavg 59.7¢	$358	$583.5	+$225.5	73% 867-323 (1190)
LI lissartter	Noavg 55¢	$312.19	$516.26	+$204.07	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Slowroasted	Noavg 83.7¢	$359.73	$417.81	+$58.07	88% 1990-279 (2269)
XC xcaiox	Noavg 66¢	$116	$194.5	+$62.5	77% 200-61 (261)
Debosnys	Noavg 91¢	$182	$194.5	+$12.5	89% 1868-225 (2093)
debased	Noavg 23¢	$25.53	$107.96	+$82.42	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
ON onekey02<$100	Noavg 51¢	$51	$97.24	+$46.25	98% 415-10 (425)
SU surfCTR	Yesavg 36.6¢	$923.52	$69.34	-$854.18	52% 381-352 (733)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 53.7¢	$920.49	$47.31	-$873.18	36% 397-691 (1088)
PoppingChairmanCTR	Yesavg 71¢	$828.02	$32.07	-$795.94	71% 35-14 (49)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$25.27	$30.67	+$5.4	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
GohstCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$86.51	$12	-$74.52	49% 738-770 (1508)
TheKinginYellowCTR	Yesavg 71.4¢	$294.59	$11.34	-$283.25	68% 830-398 (1228)
PA pakoCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$22.46	$1.47	-$20.99	65% 250-132 (382)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$1.43	$1.45	+$0.03	39% 175-269 (444)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Invested

$18,544

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$254.33

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

ImJustKen

Invested

$6,535.07

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Paul973973

Invested

$3,500

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$757.44

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$2,021.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.03

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

wish-

Invested

$1,964.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.76

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

Logan.

Invested

$318.19

Value

$983.6

PnL

+$665.41

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$911.34

Value

$923.21

PnL

+$11.87

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$634.24

Value

$643.8

PnL

+$9.55

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.56

Value

$588.62

PnL

+$119.53

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

tja

Invested

$358

Value

$583.5

PnL

+$225.5

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

lissartter

Invested

$312.19

Value

$516.26

PnL

+$204.07

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Slowroasted

Invested

$359.73

Value

$417.81

PnL

+$58.07

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

xcaiox

Invested

$116

Value

$194.5

PnL

+$62.5

Record

77%

200-61 (261)

Debosnys

Invested

$182

Value

$194.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

debased

Invested

$25.53

Value

$107.96

PnL

+$82.42

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

onekey02<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$97.24

PnL

+$46.25

Record

98%

415-10 (425)

surfCTR

Yes

Invested

$923.52

Value

$69.34

PnL

-$854.18

Record

52%

381-352 (733)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$920.49

Value

$47.31

PnL

-$873.18

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

PoppingChairmanCTR

Yes

Invested

$828.02

Value

$32.07

PnL

-$795.94

Record

71%

35-14 (49)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.27

Value

$30.67

PnL

+$5.4

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

GohstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.51

Value

$12

PnL

-$74.52

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

TheKinginYellowCTR

Yes

Invested

$294.59

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$283.25

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

pakoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.46

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$20.99

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 73% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.