US strike on Cuba by December 31?

21 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 92¢ · $186K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$185.8K

Combined PnL

$35.7K

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 91.5¢

+39% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$181.1K

Total Shares197,968

Combined PnL+$46.0K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares38,469

Combined PnL$-10.2K

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 56% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 88% · 17

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 54% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 74% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jan777	Noavg 61.7¢	$10.5K	$61.5K	+$17.2K	55% 61-50 (111)
Anjun	Noavg 62.8¢	$19.2K	$27.9K	+$8.7K	55% 4925-3986 (8911)
AP apmt	Noavg 66.7¢	$14.3K	$19.7K	+$5.3K	74% 64-22 (86)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 54.7¢	$10.9K	$18.3K	+$7.4K	80% 437-110 (547)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 83.3¢	$14.0K	$14.4K	+$335.91	77% 632-185 (817)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 73.6¢	$11.0K	$13.7K	+$2.7K	87% 95-14 (109)
ST StudentMoney	Noavg 67.1¢	$5.7K	$7.2K	+$1.5K	71% 828-343 (1171)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 75¢	$4.4K	$5.0K	+$548.27	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
TH thoodr	Noavg 90¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$66.66	96% 631-24 (655)
ImJustKen	Noavg 75.9¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$475.92	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 73¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$543.29	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GollumGekko	Noavg 53.5¢	$848.49	$1.2K	+$356.26	68% 2074-958 (3032)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$131.11	59% 986-684 (1670)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$5.0K	$1.1K	$-4.0K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
-Yang-	Noavg 55¢	$764	$1.0K	+$242.5	82% 275-61 (336)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$4.2K	$862.99	$-3.3K	39% 196-304 (500)
ME melganisARB<$100	Yesavg 45.3¢	$1.1K	$509.24	-$627.61	75% 1597-541 (2138)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.1¢	$258.22	$342.07	+$83.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.3¢	$889.95	$167.16	-$711.46
KR Krass	Noavg 56.6¢	$282.99	$457.49	+$174.49	74% 452-155 (607)
eightpenguinsCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$716.25	$388.19	$-1.5K	52% 304-281 (585)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 36.6¢	$1.2K	$346.34	-$838.88	36% 397-691 (1088)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 57¢	$169.25	$274.5	+$105.25	66% 955-482 (1437)
PoppingChairman	Noavg 57.8¢	$138.86	$269.34	+$130.48	71% 35-14 (49)
4751346	Noavg 62.1¢	$153.26	$238.57	+$85.31	72% 1257-483 (1740)
CarCTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$237.08	$226.11	-$10.97	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
Talophex	Noavg 64.3¢	$96.01	$137.26	+$41.25	91% 929-95 (1024)

Jan777

Invested

$10,488.97

Value

$61.5K

PnL

+$17.2K

Record

55%

61-50 (111)

Anjun

Invested

$19,183.85

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$8.7K

Record

55%

4925-3986 (8911)

apmt

Invested

$14,325.3

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

Kevindoto

Invested

$10,936.59

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

alwaysOn

Invested

$14,033.16

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$335.91

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

skibabiba

Invested

$11,039.99

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

StudentMoney

Invested

$5,700.98

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$4,417.94

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$548.27

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

thoodr

Invested

$3,993.89

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$66.66

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

ImJustKen

Invested

$2,430.59

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$475.92

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,312.24

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$543.29

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

GollumGekko

Invested

$848.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$356.26

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,241.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$131.11

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,012.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

-Yang-

Invested

$764

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$242.5

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,165.93

Value

$862.99

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

melganisARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,136.84

Value

$509.24

PnL

-$627.61

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Both legs:

No$258.2269.1¢+$83.85

Yes$889.9545.3¢-$711.46

Krass

Invested

$282.99

Value

$457.49

PnL

+$174.49

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

eightpenguinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$716.25

Value

$388.19

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

304-281 (585)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,185.22

Value

$346.34

PnL

-$838.88

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$169.25

Value

$274.5

PnL

+$105.25

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

PoppingChairman

Invested

$138.86

Value

$269.34

PnL

+$130.48

Record

71%

35-14 (49)

4751346

Invested

$153.26

Value

$238.57

PnL

+$85.31

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.08

Value

$226.11

PnL

-$10.97

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Talophex

Invested

$96.01

Value

$137.26

PnL

+$41.25

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 56% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 88% · 17

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 54% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 74% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.