Consensus PnL -$33K · win rate 50% (429–426, n=855) · PM monthly #122 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-33.5K
Record
429W / 426L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 855 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1746
Source
PM monthly #122
Trades
667
Markets
949
Volume
$13.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers $30K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
- Spread: Bengals (-13.5)Bengals $1.5K · now 51¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
Specialties
680 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+29 pts
side won 78% of 69 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +37%
- College Football
+27 pts
side won 79% of 66 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +11%
- NFL
+23 pts
side won 73% of 160 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 47% of 161 at an average 49¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 38% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 63% of 144)
- 50–70¢: 71%(won 68% of 485)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 86% of 22)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.