Browns vs. Steelers

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (64%) · Steelers at 65¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 1

Browns36¢Steelers64¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Steelers

Consensus Traders

Steelers 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.8K

Combined PnL

-$197.72

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateSteelers at 65%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Browns36%

Steelers65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Steelers7 traders

Total Value$45.8K

Total Shares71,068

Combined PnL-$171.25

Browns4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,405

Combined PnL-$26.48

Steelers — 64%Browns — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Browns) and the top 1000 (11 on Steelers) disagree here.

whaleBrowns 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpSteelers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSteelers 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Steelers 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Steelersavg 65¢	$30.5K	$30.2K	-$234.3	48% 420-457 (877)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Steelersavg 64¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$65.98	46% 458-531 (989)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Brownsavg 35¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$57.09	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 35¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$39.02
└ Steelers leg	Steelersavg 64¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$18.07
MA MAGATheeStallion	Steelersavg 64¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$15.63	57% 261-193 (454)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Steelersavg 65¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$15.38	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Brownsavg 36¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$25	50% 1188-1183 (2371)
heyboy800	Steelersavg 65¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$13.63	61% 971-608 (1579)
DA darkumbreon88	Steelersavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.43	65% 1758-962 (2720)
TimeTravelerCTR	Brownsavg 36¢	$126	$122.5	-$1.75	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Brownsavg 35¢	$10.15	$10.15	+$0.15	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Brownsavg 35¢	$9.1	$9.1	+$0.13	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Steelersavg 63¢	$1.26	$1.28	+$0.03	53% 11582-10087 (21669)

Pwaddler

Steelers

Invested

$30,465.53

Value

$30.2K

PnL

-$234.3

Record

48%

420-457 (877)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Steelers

Invested

$8,443.62

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$65.98

Record

46%

458-531 (989)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$5,043.81

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$57.09

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

Browns$2,731.435¢+$39.02

Steelers$2,312.4264¢+$18.07

MAGATheeStallion

Steelers

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.63

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

JAMJAMJAM4

Steelers

Invested

$2,000.05

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15.38

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Browns

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$25

Record

50%

1188-1183 (2371)

heyboy800

Steelers

Invested

$1,757.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$13.63

Record

61%

971-608 (1579)

darkumbreon88

Steelers

Invested

$1,328.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.43

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

TimeTravelerCTR

Browns

Invested

$126

Value

$122.5

PnL

-$1.75

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

BoomLaLa<$100

Steelers

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

Research grade

Research candidateSteelers at 65%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Browns) and the top 1000 (11 on Steelers) disagree here.

whaleBrowns 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpSteelers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSteelers 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Steelers 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Steelers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.