Consensus PnL -$57K · win rate 61% (1147–747, n=1894) · PM monthly #888 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-57.0K
Record
1147W / 747L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1894 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1106
Source
PM monthly #888
Trades
221
Markets
1,987
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BBetBoom Team $2.5K · now 64¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AHeroic $1.9K · now 62¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance PlayoffsWildcard $1.8K · now 60¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Imperial (BO5) - Gamers Club Masters PlayoffsDENDELE CS $1.8K · now 59¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Imperial)
Specialties
1,838 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 62¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Rayaya's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 61% of 1833 at an average 62¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 12% of 59)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 38% of 245)
- 50–70¢: 54%(won 61% of 984)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 76% of 550)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.