Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Imperial (BO5) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffs
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold DENDELE CS (29%) · DENDELE CS at 57¢ · $104K held · ends Nov 2
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Neutral
DENDELE CS
7
DENDELE CS 29%
$104.1K
-$79.78
58¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDENDELE CS at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | DENDELE CSavg 58¢ | $58.0K | $58.5K | +$500 | 54% 305-262 (567) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Imperialavg 42¢ | $40.9K | $40.4K | -$486.31 | 50% 7330-7454 (14784) |
RA Rayaya | DENDELE CSavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$15 | 60% 1179-782 (1961) |
 SatanishippieCTR | Imperialavg 44.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$124.7 | 48% 322-346 (668) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Imperialavg 41¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$19.43 | 53% 760-672 (1432) |
MA manoamanoCTR | Imperialavg 42.3¢ | $194.44 | $190.86 | -$3.58 | 51% 506-478 (984) |
HU humbleboyCTR<$100 | Imperialavg 40¢ | $6.25 | $6.41 | +$0.39 | 55% 515-428 (943) |
Invested
$57,999.99
Value
$58.5K
PnL
+$500
Record
54%
305-262 (567)
Invested
$40,850.33
Value
$40.4K
PnL
-$486.31
Record
50%
7330-7454 (14784)
Invested
$1,740
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$15
Record
60%
1179-782 (1961)
SatanishippieCTRInvested
$1,800
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$124.7
Record
48%
322-346 (668)
Invested
$1,592.93
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$19.43
Record
53%
760-672 (1432)
Invested
$194.44
Value
$190.86
PnL
-$3.58
Record
51%
506-478 (984)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$0.39
Record
55%
515-428 (943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.