Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wildcard (50%) · Wildcard at 60¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Wildcard
6
Wildcard 50%
$18.6K
$21.83
59.2¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralWildcard at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Wildcard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | Wildcardavg 59¢ | $9.9K | $10.0K | +$84.15 | 54% 305-262 (567) |
VI vibing123CTR | BARCAavg 41¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | -$64.39 | 52% 1575-1457 (3032) |
RA Rayaya | Wildcardavg 60¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$15 | 60% 1179-782 (1961) |
HU humbleboyCTR | BARCAavg 40¢ | $926.46 | $938.04 | +$11.58 | 55% 515-428 (943) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | BARCAavg 40¢ | $511.33 | $511.33 | +$6.39 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Wildcardavg 60¢ | $108.73 | $107.82 | -$0.91 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
Invested
$9,929.26
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$84.15
Record
54%
305-262 (567)
Invested
$5,280.77
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$64.39
Record
52%
1575-1457 (3032)
Invested
$1,799.99
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$15
Record
60%
1179-782 (1961)
Invested
$926.46
Value
$938.04
PnL
+$11.58
Record
55%
515-428 (943)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$511.33
Value
$511.33
PnL
+$6.39
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$108.73
Value
$107.82
PnL
-$0.91
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.