Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 82% (101–22, n=123) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.5K
Record
101W / 22L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 123 settled
Batting Avg
61.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#387
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
4,550
Markets
201
Volume
$4.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 28¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (52% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $450 · now 8¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $103 · now 4¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $72 · now 3¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
174 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 84¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 95% of 56 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+14 pts
side won 81% of 27 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +13%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 96¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 70% of 10 at an average 81¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 0% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 63% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 90% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 97% of 136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.