Consensus PnL $188K · win rate 94% (11054–743, n=11797) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$187.6K
Record
11054W / 743L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 11797 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#163
Source
PM monthly #998
Trades
121
Markets
13,462
Volume
$51.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $400K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (77% of 60)
Specialties
9,614 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 93¢- MLB
+5 pts
side won 97% of 199 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +1%
- Weather
+3 pts
side won 100% of 53 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+5 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 85% of 3977 at an average 86¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 8% of 433)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 31% of 137)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 58% of 202)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 99% of 8842)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.