Consensus PnL $2.3M · win rate 75% (1702–566, n=2268) · was PM monthly #561 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$2.3M
Record
1702W / 566L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 2268 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#562
Source
PM monthly #561
Trades
1,470
Markets
3,115
Volume
$134.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $1.9M · now 81¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,261 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 72¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 73% of 473 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +3%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 81% of 377 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +2%
- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 76% of 369 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 98% of 48 at an average 99¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 16% of 154)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 47% of 355)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 59% of 491)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 96% of 1261)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.