Consensus PnL $3.1K · win rate 61% (89–56, n=145) · was PM monthly #920 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$3.1K
Record
89W / 56L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 145 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1129
Source
PM monthly #920
Trades
236
Markets
160
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 75¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
111 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 58¢- Soccer
+20 pts
side won 76% of 21 · avg entry 56¢
ROI −4%
- Esports
+13 pts
side won 64% of 11 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- Economy
+12 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 78¢
ROI −7%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 33% of 12 at an average 47¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 7% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 48% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 63% of 43)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 100% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.