Consensus PnL $4.2K · win rate 62% (2542–1568, n=4110) · was PM monthly #840 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.2K
Record
2542W / 1568L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 4110 settled
Batting Avg
29.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1055
Source
PM monthly #840
Trades
1,068
Markets
4,847
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?No $653 · now 69¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (35% of 21)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $66 · now 61¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
Specialties
3,866 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 57% of 534 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +4%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 70% of 464 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+3 pts
side won 58% of 36 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −7%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 66% of 2389 at an average 66¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 15% of 286)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 39% of 715)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 59% of 1453)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 86% of 1412)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.