Consensus PnL $107K · win rate 39% (168–265, n=433) · PM monthly #858 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$106.8K
Record
168W / 265L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 433 settled
Batting Avg
62.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1520
Source
PM monthly #858 + pinned
Record (90 d)
41/46 · 89%
Trades
21,144
Markets
670
Volume
$3.6M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5Over $23 · now 27¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
480 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 38¢- NFL
+35 pts
side won 79% of 29 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +17%
- Soccer
+19 pts
side won 61% of 142 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +18%
- NBA
+16 pts
side won 53% of 17 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 19% of 31 at an average 26¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 34%(won 26% of 164)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 49% of 194)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 67% of 83)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 97% of 39)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.