CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 75¢ · $346 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$346.23
$6.67
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
68h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 67.3¢ | $121.82 | $264.46 | +$40.65 | 51% 25264-24010 (49274) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 40.6¢ | $45.99 | $28.88 | -$17.68 | 50% 21032-21299 (42331) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $31.9 | $28.05 | -$3.85 | 51% 1308-1236 (2544) |
 SharkbettingComCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $34.09 | $22.29 | -$11.8 | 42% 276-389 (665) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 32¢ | $3.2 | $2.55 | -$0.65 | 50% 1307-1282 (2589) |
Invested
$121.82
Value
$264.46
PnL
+$40.65
Record
51%
25264-24010 (49274)
Invested
$45.99
Value
$28.88
PnL
-$17.68
Record
50%
21032-21299 (42331)
Invested
$31.9
Value
$28.05
PnL
-$3.85
Record
51%
1308-1236 (2544)
SharkbettingComCTR<$100Invested
$34.09
Value
$22.29
PnL
-$11.8
Record
42%
276-389 (665)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.65
Record
50%
1307-1282 (2589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.