Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 10

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$894.14

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 71.5¢

+43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,523

Combined PnL+$978.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$418.29

Total Shares1,231

Combined PnL-$84.04

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

502h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 50.8¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$769.97	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 45¢	$563.18	$677.79	+$53.27	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$296.49	$471.48	+$181.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$266.7	$206.31	-$128.32
FO foooool	Noavg 49.5¢	$149.97	$216.64	+$69.71	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 44.9¢	$133.16	$212.15	+$81.95	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$18.92	$198.53	-$91.3	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 26.8¢	$203.6	$196.8	+$21.54	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
SE sentrio	Noavg 45¢	$92.52	$147.01	+$56.54	50% 24946-24626 (49572)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$20	$13.44	-$10.98	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.6¢	$9.9	$9.52	-$3.28	54% 57187-49444 (106631)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,888.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$769.97

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$563.18

Value

$677.79

PnL

+$53.27

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

Both legs:

No$296.4945¢+$181.59

Yes$266.753¢-$128.32

foooool

Invested

$149.97

Value

$216.64

PnL

+$69.71

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$133.16

Value

$212.15

PnL

+$81.95

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$18.92

Value

$198.53

PnL

-$91.3

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$203.6

Value

$196.8

PnL

+$21.54

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

sentrio

Invested

$92.52

Value

$147.01

PnL

+$56.54

Record

50%

24946-24626 (49572)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$10.98

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$3.28

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

502h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.