Consensus PnL -$16K · win rate 55% (109–88, n=197) · was PM monthly #845 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-15.5K
Record
109W / 88L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 197 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1521
Source
PM monthly #845
Record (90 d)
105/184 · 57%
Trades
77
Markets
205
Volume
$387.4K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B9z $9.8K · now 39¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (TYLOO)
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors $857 · now 65¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (58% of 104)
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ALegacy $698 · now 62¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (61% of 25)
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group BBetBoom Team $309 · now 28¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (58% of 22)
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over $19 · now 44¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
184 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 57¢- NBA
+10 pts
side won 67% of 27 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 55% of 154 at an average 57¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 33% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 42% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 58%(won 58% of 107)
- 70¢ and up: 15%(won 82% of 28)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.