Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

47 of 61 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (77%) · Legacy at 62¢ · $336K held · ends Nov 3

Legacy62¢B838¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Legacy

Consensus Traders

Legacy 77%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$335.9K

Combined PnL

-$105.82

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 61.5¢

+0% since entry · 47 traders

Research grade

Research candidateLegacy at 62%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

47 of 61 top traders (77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Legacy62%

B839%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Legacy47 traders

Total Value$281.1K

Total Shares460,104

Combined PnL-$755.52

B814 traders

Total Value$49.8K

Total Shares126,953

Combined PnL+$649.7

Legacy — 77%B8 — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLegacy 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLegacy 68% · 34

Aligned

Hand-pickedLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Legacy 71% · 41

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Legacyavg 61¢	$51.5K	$51.5K	-$0.1	54% 1298-1100 (2398)
QI qiu3	Legacyavg 62¢	$42.5K	$42.2K	-$343.03	60% 44-29 (73)
drainedandpoor	Legacyavg 61¢	$36.6K	$36.9K	+$300	49% 633-670 (1303)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Legacyavg 61¢	$27.4K	$27.7K	+$225	53% 768-681 (1449)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	B8avg 38.4¢	$24.7K	$24.7K	+$43.12	57% 216-164 (380)
0X 0x387f3602454Bb7dC5FB3938aEfb2D12F70232095-1777148824538	Legacyavg 61¢	$22.6K	$22.6K	+$185	58% 49-35 (84)
VE Vetch	Legacyavg 61.4¢	$11.2K	$11.4K	+$196.79	60% 372-244 (616)
KateBollinger	Legacyavg 60.8¢	$10.4K	$10.0K	-$385.35	68% 1764-823 (2587)
VI vibing123	Legacyavg 61.7¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$101.94	52% 1591-1481 (3072)
DumplingBMF	Legacyavg 62.3¢	$9.3K	$9.2K	-$124.93	68% 1842-854 (2696)
GA gaclfzCTR	B8avg 39¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$0	73% 1304-481 (1785)
NE NeverLoseBet	Legacyavg 61¢	$8.0K	$8.2K	+$197.25	47% 81-92 (173)
ryou999	Legacyavg 61¢	$7.9K	$8.1K	+$195.01	38% 11-18 (29)
BA Babooou	Legacyavg 61¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$0	51% 222-210 (432)
LO lonmi2511CTR	B8avg 39¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$366.19	54% 1254-1050 (2304)
SU suntori	Legacyavg 62¢	$5.9K	$5.0K	-$904.21	45% 13461-16377 (29838)
Satanishippie	Legacyavg 62¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$74.19	48% 327-355 (682)
IV Ivan948CTR	B8avg 44.1¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$148.2	42% 86-119 (205)
NO nobody2somebody	Legacyavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0	52% 648-602 (1250)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	B8avg 43¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$127.98	54% 2567-2196 (4763)
└ B8 leg	B8avg 43¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$224.04
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 55.5¢	$889.44	$985.5	+$96.06
XY Xyp9xFan	Legacyavg 61¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$20.36	54% 474-397 (871)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Legacyavg 61¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$20.49	51% 369-358 (727)
RA Rayaya	Legacyavg 65.7¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$171.69	60% 1197-785 (1982)
Reformedx	Legacyavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0	51% 852-813 (1665)
forsenxd	Legacyavg 60¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$32.11	53% 1082-952 (2034)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Legacy

Invested

$51,517.15

Value

$51.5K

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

1298-1100 (2398)

qiu3

Legacy

Invested

$42,535.63

Value

$42.2K

PnL

-$343.03

Record

60%

44-29 (73)

drainedandpoor

Legacy

Invested

$36,600

Value

$36.9K

PnL

+$300

Record

49%

633-670 (1303)

Wiretransferxyz

Legacy

Invested

$27,450

Value

$27.7K

PnL

+$225

Record

53%

768-681 (1449)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Invested

$24,697.27

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$43.12

Record

57%

216-164 (380)

0x387f3602454Bb7dC5FB3938aEfb2D12F70232095-1777148824538

Legacy

Invested

$22,570

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$185

Record

58%

49-35 (84)

Vetch

Legacy

Invested

$11,247.36

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$196.79

Record

60%

372-244 (616)

KateBollinger

Legacy

Invested

$10,371.72

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$385.35

Record

68%

1764-823 (2587)

vibing123

Legacy

Invested

$9,370.08

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$101.94

Record

52%

1591-1481 (3072)

DumplingBMF

Legacy

Invested

$9,349.92

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$124.93

Record

68%

1842-854 (2696)

gaclfzCTR

Invested

$8,951.95

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

1304-481 (1785)

NeverLoseBet

Legacy

Invested

$8,021.48

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$197.25

Record

47%

81-92 (173)

ryou999

Legacy

Invested

$7,930.25

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$195.01

Record

38%

11-18 (29)

Babooou

Legacy

Invested

$7,320

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

222-210 (432)

lonmi2511CTR

Invested

$5,798.2

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$366.19

Record

54%

1254-1050 (2304)

suntori

Legacy

Invested

$5,920.4

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$904.21

Record

45%

13461-16377 (29838)

Satanishippie

Legacy

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$74.19

Record

48%

327-355 (682)

Ivan948CTR

Invested

$4,057.48

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$148.2

Record

42%

86-119 (205)

nobody2somebody

Legacy

Invested

$3,050

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

648-602 (1250)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Invested

$3,022.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$127.98

Record

54%

2567-2196 (4763)

Both legs:

B8$2,132.8843¢-$224.04

Legacy$889.4455.5¢+$96.06

Xyp9xFan

Legacy

Invested

$2,484.12

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$20.36

Record

54%

474-397 (871)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Legacy

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$20.49

Record

51%

369-358 (727)

Rayaya

Legacy

Invested

$2,661.44

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$171.69

Record

60%

1197-785 (1982)

Reformedx

Legacy

Invested

$2,440

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

852-813 (1665)

forsenxd

Legacy

Invested

$1,926.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$32.11

Record

53%

1082-952 (2034)

Research grade

Research candidateLegacy at 62%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

47 of 61 top traders (77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLegacy 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLegacy 68% · 34

Aligned

Hand-pickedLegacy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Legacy 71% · 41

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Legacy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.