Games Total: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$46.56
56.9¢ → 57¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 58.6¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$90.51 | 57% 1104-824 (1928) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 43.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | +$25.56 | 58% 44584-32454 (77038) |
AM am100 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$19.86 | 55% 1175-950 (2125) |
PL pltrkr111 | Underavg 55¢ | $438.83 | $442.82 | +$3.99 | 54% 755-637 (1392) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $237.97 | $232.56 | -$5.41 | 64% 1845-1027 (2872) |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Overavg 46.2¢ | $47.41 | $45.95 | -$1.05 | 46% 8241-9613 (17854) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.2¢ | $24.04 | $23.4 | -$0.64 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57¢ | $23.37 | $22.55 | -$0.41 | |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.15 | -$0.05 | 52% 8449-7707 (16156) |
Invested
$2,049.95
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$90.51
Record
57%
1104-824 (1928)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,802.4
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$25.56
Record
58%
44584-32454 (77038)
Invested
$1,326.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$19.86
Record
55%
1175-950 (2125)
Invested
$438.83
Value
$442.82
PnL
+$3.99
Record
54%
755-637 (1392)
Invested
$237.97
Value
$232.56
PnL
-$5.41
Record
64%
1845-1027 (2872)
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$47.41
Value
$45.95
PnL
-$1.05
Record
46%
8241-9613 (17854)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
8449-7707 (16156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.