Consensus PnL -$1.2M · win rate 80% (278–69, n=347) · was PM monthly #719 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.2M
Record
278W / 69L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 347 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#348
Source
PM monthly #719
Record (90 d)
46/46 · 100%
Trades
244
Markets
381
Volume
$5.8M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5Under $12K · now 51¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
331 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 53¢- Soccer
+45 pts
side won 100% of 31 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +46%
- MLB
+37 pts
side won 88% of 132 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +18%
- NFL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 88% of 105)
- 50–70¢: 66%(won 82% of 217)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.