Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $101K held · ends Nov 8

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$100.8K

Combined PnL

$494.69

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$53.1K

Total Shares105,109

Combined PnL+$664.11

Under8 traders

Total Value$44.9K

Total Shares90,482

Combined PnL-$169.42

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW PwaddlerCTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$24.7K	$24.2K	-$590.04	48% 434-463 (897)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 51.7¢	$21.7K	$20.8K	-$934.87	53% 642-565 (1207)
scootergeneCTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$16.6K	$17.2K	+$851.21	53% 381-334 (715)
TH THEdirkdiggler	Underavg 49¢	$11.8K	$11.9K	+$360.02	49% 280-286 (566)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47.5¢	$9.5K	$9.9K	+$400.23	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$8.7K	$9.0K	+$310.48	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
BA Bagwell306ARB<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$61.93	57% 4172-3145 (7317)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$22.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.41
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$22.88	57% 2701-2002 (4703)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 49.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$7.04	52% 5948-5557 (11505)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 49¢	$435.72	$444.86	+$9.14	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 49.2¢	$291.94	$293.62	+$1.67	47% 497-565 (1062)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$243.62	$252.37	+$8.75	50% 343-339 (682)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$685.63	$135.62	-$4.97	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
BO BoomLaLa	Underavg 49¢	$122.5	$123.75	+$1.25	54% 11950-10370 (22320)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$37.96	+$66.13	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49¢	$16.33	$16.5	+$0.17	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$16.52	$16.19	-$0.33	50% 8196-8216 (16412)

PwaddlerCTR

Over

Invested

$24,749.92

Value

$24.2K

PnL

-$590.04

Record

48%

434-463 (897)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$21,724.7

Value

$20.8K

PnL

-$934.87

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

scootergeneCTR

Over

Invested

$16,597.5

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$851.21

Record

53%

381-334 (715)

THEdirkdiggler

Under

Invested

$11,761.9

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$360.02

Record

49%

280-286 (566)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$9,492

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$400.23

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$8,721.41

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$310.48

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Bagwell306ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,754.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$61.93

Record

57%

4172-3145 (7317)

Both legs:

Over$1,493.2249.7¢+$22.52

Under$1,261.1648¢+$39.41

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$2,276.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$22.88

Record

57%

2701-2002 (4703)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,433.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$7.04

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$435.72

Value

$444.86

PnL

+$9.14

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$291.94

Value

$293.62

PnL

+$1.67

Record

47%

497-565 (1062)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR

Over

Invested

$243.62

Value

$252.37

PnL

+$8.75

Record

50%

343-339 (682)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$685.63

Value

$135.62

PnL

-$4.97

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

BoomLaLa

Under

Invested

$122.5

Value

$123.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

11950-10370 (22320)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,956.83

Value

$37.96

PnL

+$66.13

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$16.33

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.52

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

8196-8216 (16412)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.