Consensus PnL -$46K · win rate 63% (115–69, n=184) · PM monthly #785 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-46.1K
Record
115W / 69L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 184 settled
Batting Avg
85.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#655
Source
PM monthly #785
Record (90 d)
95/152 · 63%
Trades
231
Markets
186
Volume
$591.5K
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Broncos vs. PanthersPanthers $1.0K · now 42¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Broncos)
- Raiders vs. 49ers49ers $725 · now 80¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (63% of 17)
Specialties
179 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 64¢- NBA
+15 pts
side won 81% of 42 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +7%
- College Football
+4 pts
side won 68% of 28 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +3%
- Other Sports
+9 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 48% of 64 at an average 60¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 47% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 59%(won 53% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 86% of 56)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.