Raiders vs. 49ers

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (63%) · 49ers at 80¢ · $97K held · ends Nov 8

Raiders21¢49ers79¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$97.1K

Combined PnL

-$107.92

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidate49ers at 80%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders21%

49ers80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers10 traders

Total Value$79.8K

Total Shares100,298

Combined PnL-$494.06

Raiders6 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares83,634

Combined PnL+$386.14

49ers — 63%Raiders — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

116h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (9 on 49ers) disagree here.

whaleRaiders 67% · 3

Diverging

sharp49ers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctr49ers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100049ers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	49ersavg 80¢	$40.0K	$39.8K	-$250	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
FE ferrariChampions2026	49ersavg 80¢	$28.2K	$28.0K	-$175.94	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
DA darkumbreon88	49ersavg 80¢	$5.3K	$9.5K	-$59.71	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Raidersavg 20¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$195.75	50% 549-553 (1102)
TA takeormakeCTR	Raidersavg 20¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$178.57	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
EdZacharyCTR	Raidersavg 20.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$9.95	43% 118-156 (274)
NM NM-P	49ersavg 80.1¢	$198.9	$897.19	+$1.83	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
TH TheMathGod	49ersavg 80.5¢	$734.38	$725.44	-$8.94	63% 115-68 (183)
HE Herdonia	49ersavg 80¢	$585.59	$581.77	-$3.82	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
GC GC-P	49ersavg 79¢	$238.04	$239.55	+$1.51	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
DV dv-pmARB<$100	Raidersavg 20.5¢	$164.18	$160.88	+$2.53	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 20.5¢	$115.9	$113.18	+$2.83
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 80.5¢	$48.29	$47.7	-$0.3
RollAwayTheDew<$100	49ersavg 80.8¢	$59.81	$58.83	-$0.98	54% 542-460 (1002)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	49ersavg 79¢	$54.62	$54.97	+$0.35	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Raidersavg 20¢	$18.02	$18	+$0.85	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
38 38791873984189<$100	49ersavg 78.8¢	$58.55	$11.2	+$1.65	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raidersavg 16.7¢	$4.85	$5.8	+$0.95	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Raidersavg 18.1¢	$0.8	$0.86	+$0.06	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

primm

49ers

Invested

$40,000

Value

$39.8K

PnL

-$250

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

ferrariChampions2026

49ers

Invested

$28,150.32

Value

$28.0K

PnL

-$175.94

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

darkumbreon88

49ers

Invested

$5,342.45

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$59.71

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Raiders

Invested

$7,829.97

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$195.75

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

takeormakeCTR

Raiders

Invested

$7,142.8

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$178.57

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

EdZacharyCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,762.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$9.95

Record

43%

118-156 (274)

NM-P

49ers

Invested

$198.9

Value

$897.19

PnL

+$1.83

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

TheMathGod

49ers

Invested

$734.38

Value

$725.44

PnL

-$8.94

Record

63%

115-68 (183)

Herdonia

49ers

Invested

$585.59

Value

$581.77

PnL

-$3.82

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

GC-P

49ers

Invested

$238.04

Value

$239.55

PnL

+$1.51

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

dv-pmARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$164.18

Value

$160.88

PnL

+$2.53

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

Both legs:

Raiders$115.920.5¢+$2.83

49ers$48.2980.5¢-$0.3

RollAwayTheDew<$100

49ers

Invested

$59.81

Value

$58.83

PnL

-$0.98

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

HomeRunHazard<$100

49ers

Invested

$54.62

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$18.02

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.85

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

38791873984189<$100

49ers

Invested

$58.55

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$1.65

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.95

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

Research candidate49ers at 80%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

116h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (9 on 49ers) disagree here.

whaleRaiders 67% · 3

Diverging

sharp49ers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctr49ers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100049ers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.