Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Broncos (57%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Broncos vs. Panthers

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (82%) · Panthers at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Broncos57¢Panthers43¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 82%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$39.79

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 42.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Broncos 57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos57%

Panthers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,522

Combined PnL-$17.84

Panthers9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,642

Combined PnL+$57.63

Broncos — 18%Panthers — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpPanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Broncosavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10	51% 4760-4625 (9385)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Panthersavg 42.7¢	$903.94	$888.6	+$10.58	54% 18231-15340 (33571)
DV dv-pmCTR	Panthersavg 41¢	$337.02	$349.35	+$12.33	49% 3325-3528 (6853)
FL Flaznorp	Broncosavg 59.7¢	$312.05	$300.42	-$7.84	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Panthersavg 41¢	$249.28	$255.36	+$9.12	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Panthersavg 41¢	$246.51	$252.56	+$9.05	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
38 38791873984189CTR	Panthersavg 40.8¢	$289.68	$105.18	+$5.5	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Panthersavg 42¢	$79.66	$80.6	+$0.95	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Panthersavg 35¢	$14	$16.8	+$3	54% 520-445 (965)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$93.88	$5.22	+$6.98	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40.8¢	$4.06	$4.17	+$0.12	53% 12487-11218 (23705)

6512395314597884

Broncos

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

4760-4625 (9385)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Panthers

Invested

$903.94

Value

$888.6

PnL

+$10.58

Record

54%

18231-15340 (33571)

dv-pmCTR

Panthers

Invested

$337.02

Value

$349.35

PnL

+$12.33

Record

49%

3325-3528 (6853)

Flaznorp

Broncos

Invested

$312.05

Value

$300.42

PnL

-$7.84

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

SnakeBallCTR

Panthers

Invested

$249.28

Value

$255.36

PnL

+$9.12

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

HerdoniaCTR

Panthers

Invested

$246.51

Value

$252.56

PnL

+$9.05

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

38791873984189CTR

Panthers

Invested

$289.68

Value

$105.18

PnL

+$5.5

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

NM-PCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$79.66

Value

$80.6

PnL

+$0.95

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$14

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

520-445 (965)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$93.88

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$6.98

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Broncos 57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpPanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.