Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $80K held · ends Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$80.1K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 98.7¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$79.9K

Total Shares81,113

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$190.96

Total Shares16,456

Combined PnL-$374.14

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 96.5¢	$29.3K	$29.8K	+$506.44	98% 6914-167 (7081)
GE getbipped	Noavg 94.1¢	$27.5K	$28.9K	+$1.4K	49% 208-213 (421)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 72.5¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	+$279.88	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
TO Tokor	Noavg 89.9¢	$9.1K	$10.0K	+$910.89	62% 795-490 (1285)
19 196874353278	Noavg 95.9¢	$472.89	$484.13	+$14.94	45% 212-263 (475)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$499.8	$163.09	-$336.62	9% 48-465 (513)
TI timetowanderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$20.58	$21.44	+$0.86	40% 396-590 (986)
PippiTraderCTR	Yesavg 37.8¢	$44.81	$6.43	-$38.38	61% 313-200 (513)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.91	$4.91	+$0	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

Sharky6999

Invested

$29,322.85

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$506.44

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

getbipped

Invested

$27,473.58

Value

$28.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

208-213 (421)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$10,393.37

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$279.88

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

Tokor

Invested

$9,123.55

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$910.89

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

196874353278

Invested

$472.89

Value

$484.13

PnL

+$14.94

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$499.8

Value

$163.09

PnL

-$336.62

Record

48-465 (513)

timetowanderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.58

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$0.86

Record

40%

396-590 (986)

PippiTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$44.81

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$38.38

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.