Consensus PnL -$195K · win rate 61% (322–207, n=529) · was PM monthly #883 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-194.8K
Record
322W / 207L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 529 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1120
Source
PM monthly #883
Trades
136
Markets
551
Volume
$4.4M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $28K · now 99¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 47)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex $5.9K · now 57¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (66% of 67)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $2.8K · now 19¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATheMongolz $297 · now 48¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Legacy)
Specialties
523 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 64¢- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 86% of 64 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 59% of 453 at an average 62¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 29% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 39% of 71)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 56% of 254)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 82% of 184)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.