Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 71% (908–365, n=1273) · PM monthly #950 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$91.4K
Record
908W / 365L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 1273 settled
Batting Avg
50.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#689
Source
PM monthly #950
Record (90 d)
310/481 · 64%
Trades
887
Markets
1,767
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 WinnerHULIGANI $986 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (59% of 43)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere $743 · now 79¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (62% of 39)
Specialties
1,311 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 69¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 75% of 1279 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 38% of 16 at an average 44¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 12% of 84)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 35% of 214)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 74% of 270)
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 92% of 743)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.