Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner

20 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (53%) · HULIGANI at 100¢ · $170K held · ends Nov 2

LEGION<1¢HULIGANI>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 53%

Total Value

$169.9K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

20 of 38 top traders (53%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LEGION0%

HULIGANI100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI20 traders

Total Value$167.1K

Total Shares166,701

Combined PnL+$38.2K

LEGION18 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares89,758

Combined PnL$-35.5K

HULIGANI — 53%LEGION — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHULIGANI 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpHULIGANI 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 52% · 33

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 55% · 40

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	HULIGANIavg 62.5¢	$43.4K	$42.4K	-$927.71	53% 541-473 (1014)
LhordGryffin	HULIGANIavg 99.9¢	$27.6K	$27.6K	+$14.23	99% 1141-12 (1153)
Sunshine.Smile	HULIGANIavg 64.8¢	$17.8K	$27.5K	+$9.7K	58% 1869-1353 (3222)
SI Sisyphus-	HULIGANIavg 57.2¢	$12.7K	$22.2K	+$9.5K	57% 729-556 (1285)
CyberScore.live	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$10.0K	$20.0K	+$10.0K	46% 410-482 (892)
YA yadens	HULIGANIavg 61.8¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	+$2.6K	71% 168-70 (238)
maytopmay	HULIGANIavg 60.7¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$2.5K	61% 288-185 (473)
Tolkonevminus2	HULIGANIavg 83.5¢	$10.8K	$4.8K	+$800.07	60% 78-53 (131)
AM AmericaFirst1	HULIGANIavg 59¢	$2.0K	$3.4K	+$1.4K	62% 2233-1363 (3596)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	LEGIONavg 30.2¢	$3.1K	$1.4K	$-1.7K	49% 812-861 (1673)
Up0nly	HULIGANIavg 60¢	$815.46	$1.4K	+$542.78	68% 990-473 (1463)
WE wewbo	HULIGANIavg 48.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$599.42	52% 152-139 (291)
CC ccllar	HULIGANIavg 57¢	$762.61	$834.45	+$71.84	47% 481-542 (1023)
PA para-Vision	HULIGANIavg 51¢	$411.13	$805.75	+$394.61	55% 222-181 (403)
GO GooGooGaga1	HULIGANIavg 73¢	$561.19	$560.91	+$151.24	77% 41-12 (53)
CA calculate10CTR	LEGIONavg 38.8¢	$3.5K	$499.76	$-1.3K	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	HULIGANIavg 60.8¢	$7.1K	$484.82	+$406.5	62% 589-364 (953)
PA panpidaras1CTR	LEGIONavg 50.4¢	$1.3K	$299.14	-$999.11	49% 218-223 (441)
latvian.demon	HULIGANIavg 58¢	$250	$249.88	+$104.88	54% 726-612 (1338)
PA pauleta23	HULIGANIavg 70.4¢	$213.24	$213.13	+$62.92	66% 23620-11932 (35552)
JO JocJo	HULIGANIavg 63.6¢	$194.36	$194.27	+$70.67	51% 965-909 (1874)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	LEGIONavg 38.3¢	$5.5K	$152.43	$-2.0K	50% 547-542 (1089)
SE seeeeeebCTR	LEGIONavg 61¢	$332.02	$152.05	-$179.97	53% 858-761 (1619)
BE berlinskies	HULIGANIavg 50.9¢	$291.16	$72.99	+$279.8	58% 6030-4389 (10419)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	LEGIONavg 29.9¢	$2.0K	$50.87	$-1.1K	51% 362-353 (715)

pnhct

HULIGANI

Invested

$43,355.54

Value

$42.4K

PnL

-$927.71

Record

53%

541-473 (1014)

LhordGryffin

HULIGANI

Invested

$27,625.41

Value

$27.6K

PnL

+$14.23

Record

99%

1141-12 (1153)

Sunshine.Smile

HULIGANI

Invested

$17,821.81

Value

$27.5K

PnL

+$9.7K

Record

58%

1869-1353 (3222)

Sisyphus-

HULIGANI

Invested

$12,699.95

Value

$22.2K

PnL

+$9.5K

Record

57%

729-556 (1285)

CyberScore.live

HULIGANI

Invested

$9,997.25

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

46%

410-482 (892)

yadens

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,800.14

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

71%

168-70 (238)

maytopmay

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,361.59

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

61%

288-185 (473)

Tolkonevminus2

HULIGANI

Invested

$10,780.52

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$800.07

Record

60%

78-53 (131)

AmericaFirst1

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,024.44

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

62%

2233-1363 (3596)

RandomVibecoderCTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,119.17

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

812-861 (1673)

Up0nly

HULIGANI

Invested

$815.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$542.78

Record

68%

990-473 (1463)

wewbo

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$599.42

Record

52%

152-139 (291)

ccllar

HULIGANI

Invested

$762.61

Value

$834.45

PnL

+$71.84

Record

47%

481-542 (1023)

para-Vision

HULIGANI

Invested

$411.13

Value

$805.75

PnL

+$394.61

Record

55%

222-181 (403)

GooGooGaga1

HULIGANI

Invested

$561.19

Value

$560.91

PnL

+$151.24

Record

77%

41-12 (53)

calculate10CTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,494.28

Value

$499.76

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

BackTestEoCaraio

HULIGANI

Invested

$7,057.34

Value

$484.82

PnL

+$406.5

Record

62%

589-364 (953)

panpidaras1CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,298.25

Value

$299.14

PnL

-$999.11

Record

49%

218-223 (441)

latvian.demon

HULIGANI

Invested

$250

Value

$249.88

PnL

+$104.88

Record

54%

726-612 (1338)

pauleta23

HULIGANI

Invested

$213.24

Value

$213.13

PnL

+$62.92

Record

66%

23620-11932 (35552)

JocJo

HULIGANI

Invested

$194.36

Value

$194.27

PnL

+$70.67

Record

51%

965-909 (1874)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,452.79

Value

$152.43

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

50%

547-542 (1089)

seeeeeebCTR

LEGION

Invested

$332.02

Value

$152.05

PnL

-$179.97

Record

53%

858-761 (1619)

berlinskies

HULIGANI

Invested

$291.16

Value

$72.99

PnL

+$279.8

Record

58%

6030-4389 (10419)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,973.14

Value

$50.87

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

362-353 (715)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

20 of 38 top traders (53%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHULIGANI 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpHULIGANI 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 52% · 33

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 55% · 40

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.