Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 47% (36–40, n=76) · PM monthly #750 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.1K
Record
36W / 40L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 76 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1935
Source
PM monthly #750
Trades
122
Markets
80
Volume
$725.3K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $11K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes $1.5K · now 37¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (56% of 17)
Specialties
67 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 27¢- Crypto
+43 pts
side won 69% of 32 · avg entry 26¢
ROI +14%
- Soccer
+13 pts
side won 42% of 19 · avg entry 29¢
ROI +17%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 58%(won 41% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 57% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.