Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 26¢ · $63K held · ends Dec 31

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 25.5¢

-23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares41,151

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$24.2K

Total Shares92,906

Combined PnL$-5.3K

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

67 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VR VRVTeam	Noavg 68¢	$5.3K	$10.7K	+$1.1K	42% 37-52 (89)
classifiedARB<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$8.1K	$8.3K	+$255.45	58% 844-614 (1458)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.1¢	$5.8K	$6.3K	+$217.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.7¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	+$38.38
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 70.3¢	$7.8K	$8.2K	+$392.49	77% 632-185 (817)
PI pilimili	Noavg 69.5¢	$7.6K	$7.9K	+$380.67	62% 151-91 (242)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$7.1K	$6.7K	-$439.27	55% 79-65 (144)
M4 m4dsCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$7.5K	$5.3K	$-2.2K	72% 411-157 (568)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$6.8K	$4.9K	$-2.0K	60% 407-274 (681)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$277.24	64% 633-352 (985)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 74.2¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$14.95	89% 4653-547 (5200)
CarCTR	Yesavg 29.6¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$116.65	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$959.36	$733.19	-$212.06	57% 1114-837 (1951)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$428.15	$434.21	+$6.07	38% 567-944 (1511)
kekkoneCTR	Yesavg 29.2¢	$349.51	$357.71	+$8.2	73% 1124-417 (1541)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$346.82	$290.88	-$61.53	65% 862-465 (1327)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$144.45	$201.41	+$56.96	50% 415-417 (832)
Debosnys	Noavg 64¢	$127.99	$145.99	+$21	89% 1868-225 (2093)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$117.18	$135.41	+$18.23	66% 1482-769 (2251)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$94	$102	+$8	38% 20-32 (52)
KimchiCapital<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$50.3	$65.7	+$16.75	75% 540-176 (716)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65¢	$50	$50.34	+$0.34	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
tetraseCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$20.87	$15.96	-$5.22	61% 839-544 (1383)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$2.54	$2.4	-$0.14	50% 357-357 (714)
mombil<$100	Noavg 66¢	$0.65	$0.73	+$0.09	55% 1191-966 (2157)

VRVTeam

Invested

$5,295.59

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

42%

37-52 (89)

classifiedARB<$100

Invested

$8,078.36

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$255.45

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Both legs:

No$5,828.0567.1¢+$217.06

Yes$2,278.6829.7¢+$38.38

alwaysOn

Invested

$7,830.21

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$392.49

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

pilimili

Invested

$7,558.85

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$380.67

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

SquirrelTheMerchantCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,135.86

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$439.27

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

m4dsCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,462.63

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

72%

411-157 (568)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,812.76

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,232.15

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$277.24

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

nonkenny90

Invested

$3,242.88

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$14.95

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,138.67

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$116.65

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$959.36

Value

$733.19

PnL

-$212.06

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$428.15

Value

$434.21

PnL

+$6.07

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

kekkoneCTR

Yes

Invested

$349.51

Value

$357.71

PnL

+$8.2

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.82

Value

$290.88

PnL

-$61.53

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.45

Value

$201.41

PnL

+$56.96

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Debosnys

Invested

$127.99

Value

$145.99

PnL

+$21

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.18

Value

$135.41

PnL

+$18.23

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$94

Value

$102

PnL

+$8

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

KimchiCapital<$100

Invested

$50.3

Value

$65.7

PnL

+$16.75

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$50.34

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

tetraseCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.87

Value

$15.96

PnL

-$5.22

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

mombil<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

67 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$277.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

377.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.