Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 37¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 30

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 37¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares30,501

Combined PnL+$68.98

Yes9 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares61,044

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI pilimili	Noavg 61.5¢	$13.7K	$13.9K	+$274.54	62% 151-91 (242)
AN anoin123ARB<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$149.02	47% 476-535 (1011)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$64.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.7¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$84.75
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 39.5¢	$9.2K	$8.7K	-$477.37	58% 844-614 (1458)
M4 m4dsCTR	Yesavg 38.7¢	$5.8K	$5.2K	-$311.45	72% 411-157 (568)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 45.4¢	$5.1K	$4.0K	-$948.73	60% 407-274 (681)
StarMaster	Noavg 60.2¢	$14.6K	$3.2K	-$132.57	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$299.67	61% 839-544 (1383)
VR VRVTeamCTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$343.67	$1.5K	-$101.98	42% 37-52 (89)
BR browne	Noavg 63.3¢	$981	$960.7	-$4.81	71% 173-70 (243)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 76.1¢	$551.32	$449.31	-$91.14	89% 4653-547 (5200)
KR KrackenSrusterCTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$360	$360	+$0	66% 487-255 (742)
GollumGekko	Noavg 60.4¢	$313.37	$333.15	+$19.79	68% 2074-958 (3032)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$151.6	$147.6	-$1.95	68% 331-155 (486)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 41.9¢	$132	$143.99	+$12	66% 1482-769 (2251)
88 881112	Noavg 63.1¢	$124.29	$127.37	+$3.08	38% 567-944 (1511)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.6¢	$29.22	$30.59	+$1.37	50% 357-357 (714)
mombil<$100	Noavg 54¢	$0.53	$0.62	+$0.09	55% 1191-966 (2157)

pilimili

Invested

$13,664.98

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$274.54

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

anoin123ARB<$100

Invested

$9,005.98

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$149.02

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

Both legs:

No$5,163.7263.8¢-$64.28

Yes$4,03539.7¢-$84.75

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,172.6

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$477.37

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

m4dsCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,759.59

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$311.45

Record

72%

411-157 (568)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,107.39

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$948.73

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

StarMaster

Invested

$14,565.07

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$132.57

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,099.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$299.67

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

VRVTeamCTR

Yes

Invested

$343.67

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$101.98

Record

42%

37-52 (89)

browne

Invested

$981

Value

$960.7

PnL

-$4.81

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

nonkenny90

Invested

$551.32

Value

$449.31

PnL

-$91.14

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

KrackenSrusterCTR

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$360

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

GollumGekko

Invested

$313.37

Value

$333.15

PnL

+$19.79

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.6

Value

$147.6

PnL

-$1.95

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$132

Value

$143.99

PnL

+$12

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

881112

Invested

$124.29

Value

$127.37

PnL

+$3.08

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.22

Value

$30.59

PnL

+$1.37

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

mombil<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.0%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$163.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

263.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.