Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 50% (598–587, n=1185) · was PM monthly #655 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$84.6K
Record
598W / 587L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1185 settled
Batting Avg
68.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1741
Source
PM monthly #655
Trades
897
Markets
1,426
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Over $1.2K · now 44¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
Specialties
1,015 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 56¢- Esports
+12 pts
side won 63% of 384 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +11%
- NBA
+9 pts
side won 75% of 192 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +5%
- MMA
+14 pts
side won 68% of 66 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 39% of 103 at an average 47¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 28% of 132)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 51% of 290)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 65% of 281)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 90% of 312)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.