Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 44¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$91.05

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 43.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares13,238

Combined PnL-$131.65

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,801

Combined PnL+$40.6

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$84.93	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Underavg 57¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$17.54	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
AC acorpCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$39.73	49% 624-641 (1265)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.57	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 43.9¢	$907.16	$909.93	-$7.57	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 52¢	$671.84	$729.98	+$58.14	46% 458-531 (989)
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$222.5	$252.5	+$27.5	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$107.5	$142.5	+$33.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$115	$110	-$6.25
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 45¢	$249.8	$241.56	-$8.24	60% 146-96 (242)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45.3¢	$80.62	$78.32	-$3.19	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$49.48	$49.48	-$0.56	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$19.91	$19.91	+$0	50% 3947-3930 (7877)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$2,313.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$84.93

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

JAMJAMJAM4

Under

Invested

$2,000.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$17.54

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

acorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,192.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39.73

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,081.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.57

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$907.16

Value

$909.93

PnL

-$7.57

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$671.84

Value

$729.98

PnL

+$58.14

Record

46%

458-531 (989)

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$222.5

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

Both legs:

Under$107.543¢+$33.75

Over$11546¢-$6.25

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$249.8

Value

$241.56

PnL

-$8.24

Record

60%

146-96 (242)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.62

Value

$78.32

PnL

-$3.19

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.48

Value

$49.48

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.91

Value

$19.91

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.