Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 55% (4418–3620, n=8038) · was PM monthly #638 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.7K
Record
4418W / 3620L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 8038 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1431
Source
PM monthly #638
Trades
1,296
Markets
10,081
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETUp $1.1K · now 64¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (61% of 35)
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $5 · now 97¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $5 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No $3 · now 60¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,839 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 57¢- MLB
+37 pts
side won 99% of 876 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +36%
- Crypto
+36 pts
side won 97% of 1402 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +38%
- Other Sports
+38 pts
side won 97% of 65 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 39% of 228)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 90% of 440)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 96% of 1487)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 99% of 684)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.