Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 21 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

21 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (95%) · Yes at 5.1¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 95%

Total Value

$31.7K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

4.3¢ → 5.1¢

+17% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 22 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes21 traders

Total Value$31.7K

Total Shares633,722

Combined PnL+$5.1K

No1 trader

Total Value$5.27

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0

Yes — 95%No — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

222 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$12.1K	$14.8K	+$3.0K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$10.3K	$8.7K	$-1.7K	54% 325-279 (604)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$3.3K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$77.06	55% 1191-966 (2157)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$354.86	$431.63	+$76.77	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$405.79	$377.03	-$28.77	69% 423-188 (611)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$238.38	$269	+$30.63	57% 766-585 (1351)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$93.41	$199.99	+$42	41% 648-925 (1573)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$166.55	+$168.22	26% 351-985 (1336)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$78.52	$106.05	+$27.53	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
TheKinginYellowCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$77.23	$76.47	-$0.76	68% 830-398 (1228)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.16	$75	+$69.84	58% 1153-825 (1978)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$60.22	$62.88	+$2.66	68% 2074-957 (3031)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$60.6	$60	+$0	68% 56-26 (82)
studmuffin6969CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$35.99	$49.99	+$14.5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
RD rdbaCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$66.97	$45.85	-$19.16	60% 131-88 (219)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$37.29	$42.87	+$5.57	55% 555-461 (1016)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.29	$9.24	+$0.96	72% 1257-483 (1740)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$8.89	$9.17	+$0.28	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.75	$6.67	+$5.93	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
AR arbfinder2026<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.27	$5.27	-$0	55% 5316-4296 (9612)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$0.49	$0.5	+$0.01	71% 968-396 (1364)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,098.51

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,297.21

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,892.64

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,825.14

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$77.06

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$354.86

Value

$431.63

PnL

+$76.77

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$405.79

Value

$377.03

PnL

-$28.77

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$238.38

Value

$269

PnL

+$30.63

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$93.41

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$42

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$166.55

PnL

+$168.22

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$78.52

Value

$106.05

PnL

+$27.53

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

TheKinginYellowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.23

Value

$76.47

PnL

-$0.76

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$75

PnL

+$69.84

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.22

Value

$62.88

PnL

+$2.66

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

studmuffin6969CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.99

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$14.5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

rdbaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.97

Value

$45.85

PnL

-$19.16

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.29

Value

$42.87

PnL

+$5.57

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.29

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.96

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$9.17

PnL

+$0.28

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$5.93

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

arbfinder2026<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

5316-4296 (9612)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 22 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

222 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.3%

5.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1493.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1593.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.