Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 2.5¢

+28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares535,677

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No1 trader

Total Value$5.36

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes — 93%No — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

381 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.4K	$7.6K	+$2.6K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$397.2	54% 325-279 (604)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$815.3	$812.61	-$2.66	61% 1200-767 (1967)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$540	$510	-$29.98	36% 190-333 (523)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$500	$472.22	-$27.76	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$287.28	+$218.62	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$177.45	$177.45	+$123.09	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$48.99	$160.16	+$111.1	47% 83-94 (177)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yes	$70.5	$70.5	+$70.5	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yes	$245.28	$46.59	+$0.92	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$38.25	+$32.34	58% 1153-825 (1978)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0	$28.28	+$28.28	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$25.5	+$25.5	41% 648-925 (1573)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$11.45	$11.45	+$11.45	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
AR arbfinder2026<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$5.38	$5.36	-$0.02	55% 5316-4296 (9612)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,426.67

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,781.83

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$397.2

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$815.3

Value

$812.61

PnL

-$2.66

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$540

Value

$510

PnL

-$29.98

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$472.22

PnL

-$27.76

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$287.28

PnL

+$218.62

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.45

Value

$177.45

PnL

+$123.09

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$48.99

Value

$160.16

PnL

+$111.1

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.5

Value

$70.5

PnL

+$70.5

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$245.28

Value

$46.59

PnL

+$0.92

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$32.34

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$28.28

PnL

+$28.28

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$25.5

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.45

Value

$11.45

PnL

+$11.45

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

arbfinder2026<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

5316-4296 (9612)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

381 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2612.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

2712.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.