Consensus PnL $75K · win rate 66% (523–264, n=787) · PM monthly #372 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$75.4K
Record
523W / 264L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 787 settled
Batting Avg
64.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#887
Source
PM monthly #372 + pinned
Trades
17,081
Markets
1,347
Volume
$10.4M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $411K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
Specialties
1,157 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 76¢- Politics
+3 pts
side won 89% of 84 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 89% of 38 · avg entry 83¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 88% of 40 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 64% of 14 at an average 85¢ entry (−20 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 6% of 177)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 24% of 34)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 65% of 74)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 94% of 872)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.