Consensus PnL -$15K · win rate 88% (574–76, n=650) · PM monthly #984 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-15.4K
Record
574W / 76L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 650 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#270
Source
PM monthly #984
Record (90 d)
378/399 · 95%
Trades
156
Markets
736
Volume
$969.8K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel CerundoloCasper Ruud $3.0K · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 39)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiCameron Norrie $164 · now 82¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (77% of 27)
Specialties
468 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 79¢- Crypto
+28 pts
side won 97% of 95 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +20%
- Esports
+13 pts
side won 95% of 255 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +7%
- Tennis
+13 pts
side won 96% of 84 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 44% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 86% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 88% of 83)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 98% of 348)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.