Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Casper Ruud — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Casper Ruud

Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Resolved Casper Ruud. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Casper Ruud. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Casper Ruud 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$219.1K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

28 of 43 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Casper Ruud100%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Casper Ruud28 traders

Total Value$201.7K

Total Shares201,697

Combined PnL+$25.9K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares77,101

Combined PnL$-23.9K

Casper Ruud — 65%Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Casper Ruudavg 83¢	$49.8K	$60.0K	+$10.2K	96% 46-2 (48)
RN1	Casper Ruudavg 68.7¢	$28.2K	$34.1K	+$5.8K	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
UP UpTheBlues	Casper Ruudavg 77¢	$18.5K	$18.4K	-$85.49	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 70.1¢	$19.3K	$14.4K	$-5.0K	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 70.1¢	$10.1K	$14.4K	+$4.5K
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 29.7¢	$9.2K	—	$-9.5K
MO Momo63	Casper Ruudavg 95.3¢	$15.5K	$16.3K	+$770.04	93% 903-63 (966)
ER Erick2307	Casper Ruudavg 99.9¢	$13.7K	$13.4K	-$183.97	46% 158-186 (344)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Casper Ruudavg 81.8¢	$9.5K	$9.6K	+$103.1	52% 14038-12792 (26830)
KK kkookkooCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 29.1¢	$8.1K	—	$-8.1K	51% 612-595 (1207)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Casper Ruudavg 70.5¢	$7.9K	$7.7K	-$248.5	52% 5708-5272 (10980)
K5 k56	Casper Ruudavg 79.7¢	$6.0K	$7.5K	+$1.5K	57% 891-659 (1550)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Casper Ruudavg 74¢	$3.4K	$4.5K	+$1.1K	51% 1594-1536 (3130)
FL Flaznorp	Casper Ruudavg 71.4¢	$3.1K	$3.8K	+$620.73	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 67.3¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$103.96	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 67.3¢	$2.0K	$3.0K	+$980
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 21.9¢	$876.04	—	-$876.04
KA kahe	Casper Ruudavg 72¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.2K	68% 592-285 (877)
SH shaw	Casper Ruudavg 73.7¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.1K	53% 2291-2060 (4351)
NO Novelty8	Casper Ruudavg 72¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	71% 643-266 (909)
38 38791873984189	Casper Ruudavg 73.5¢	$4.6K	$2.3K	+$329.54	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
DM dmoralez	Casper Ruudavg 88.4¢	$8.7K	$2.2K	+$225.73	63% 198-116 (314)
EU Eulhunter	Casper Ruudavg 70.8¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$306.7	54% 5910-4956 (10866)
0X 0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7	Casper Ruudavg 86.5¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$262.53	67% 107-53 (160)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 25¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Casper Ruudavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$483.11	60% 132-89 (221)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Casper Ruudavg 74¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$470.39	53% 486-432 (918)
SU suntori	Casper Ruudavg 87¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$69.33	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
1L 1lovejump	Casper Ruudavg 86.7¢	$5.4K	$924.42	-$23.47	53% 682-607 (1289)

999585

Casper Ruud

Invested

$49,799.99

Value

$60.0K

PnL

+$10.2K

Record

96%

46-2 (48)

RN1

Casper Ruud

Invested

$28,246.41

Value

$34.1K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

UpTheBlues

Casper Ruud

Invested

$18,517.04

Value

$18.4K

PnL

-$85.49

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$19,305.22

Value

$14.4K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$10,112.7770.1¢+$4.5K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$9,192.4529.7¢$-9.5K

Momo63

Casper Ruud

Invested

$15,513.76

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$770.04

Record

93%

903-63 (966)

Erick2307

Casper Ruud

Invested

$13,677.44

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$183.97

Record

46%

158-186 (344)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Casper Ruud

Invested

$9,507.83

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$103.1

Record

52%

14038-12792 (26830)

kkookkooCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$8,125.95

Value

—

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

51%

612-595 (1207)

CandleHammerDrums

Casper Ruud

Invested

$7,898.5

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$248.5

Record

52%

5708-5272 (10980)

k56

Casper Ruud

Invested

$6,000

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

57%

891-659 (1550)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3,442

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

1594-1536 (3130)

Flaznorp

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3,119.14

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$620.73

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

NotJumpARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$2,896.04

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$103.96

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$2,02067.3¢+$980

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$876.0421.9¢-$876.04

kahe

Casper Ruud

Invested

$2,967.01

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

68%

592-285 (877)

shaw

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3,022.32

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

2291-2060 (4351)

Novelty8

Casper Ruud

Invested

$2,880

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

71%

643-266 (909)

38791873984189

Casper Ruud

Invested

$4,563.76

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$329.54

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

dmoralez

Casper Ruud

Invested

$8,734.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$225.73

Record

63%

198-116 (314)

Eulhunter

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,505.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$306.7

Record

54%

5910-4956 (10866)

0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,285.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$262.53

Record

67%

107-53 (160)

LilybaeumCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,178.17

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,375

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$483.11

Record

60%

132-89 (221)

oxe78sh4w98

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,338.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$470.39

Record

53%

486-432 (918)

suntori

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,020.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$69.33

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

1lovejump

Casper Ruud

Invested

$5,412.46

Value

$924.42

PnL

-$23.47

Record

53%

682-607 (1289)

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

28 of 43 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x15aacea1...94aa7e

Slug

atp-ruud-cerund-2026-11-02

Traders in this Market

999585

Casper Ruud — $60.0K

+$10.2K

RN1

Casper Ruud — $34.1K

+$5.8K

UpTheBlues

Casper Ruud — $18.4K

-$85.49

omnibus-076daa

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-5.0K

Momo63

Casper Ruud — $16.3K

+$770.04

Erick2307

Casper Ruud — $13.4K

-$183.97

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Casper Ruud — $9.6K

+$103.1

kkookkoo

CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo — $0

$-8.1K

CandleHammerDrums

Casper Ruud — $7.7K

-$248.5

k56

Casper Ruud — $7.5K

+$1.5K

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