Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 60% (393–261, n=654) · PM monthly #339 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$62.8K
Record
393W / 261L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 654 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1159
Source
PM monthly #339
Trades
150
Markets
1,101
Volume
$371.8K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $862 · now 86¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $573 · now 41¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
276 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- College Football
+36 pts
side won 100% of 85 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +43%
- MLB
+34 pts
side won 100% of 96 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +37%
- NHL
+43 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 100% of 83)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 131)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.