Consensus PnL $96K · win rate 50% (46–46, n=92) · PM monthly #260 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$96.2K
Record
46W / 46L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 92 settled
Batting Avg
21.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1185
Source
PM monthly #260
Record (90 d)
43/76 · 57%
Trades
282
Markets
95
Volume
$731.8K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?Yes $11 · now 56¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
75 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 48¢- Soccer
+17 pts
side won 64% of 28 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +13%
- NBA
+9 pts
side won 52% of 29 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 55% of 11 at an average 57¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 27% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 46% of 26)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 77% of 35)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 33% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.