Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 45¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 7

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$30.8K

Combined PnL

$623.44

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 44.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares59,140

Combined PnL+$691.38

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,398

Combined PnL-$67.94

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (15 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Noavg 43¢	$16.5K	$16.9K	+$575.08	49% 64-67 (131)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	+$63.23	48% 3353-3569 (6922)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 42.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	+$30.07	58% 47061-33943 (81004)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 56¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$21.63	64% 2011-1119 (3130)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 58.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10	48% 7436-8152 (15588)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 56¢	$503	$503	+$0	50% 28611-28439 (57050)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 43¢	$69.62	$367.54	+$10.76	51% 26324-24949 (51273)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 43¢	$9.49	$335.36	+$3.81	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 58.2¢	$324.32	$311.92	-$12.4	49% 6334-6486 (12820)
IC ic4cream	Yesavg 58.2¢	$287.63	$276.64	-$2.47	56% 2780-2195 (4975)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 43¢	$246.41	$254.84	+$8.42	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 57.2¢	$266.53	$125.26	-$19.77	48% 61881-66739 (128620)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$42.27	$42.66	-$0.02	58% 21404-15543 (36947)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$25.51	$24.53	-$0.97	33% 1180-2351 (3531)
BI big8betz<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$11	$10.71	-$0.29	48% 44-48 (92)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$10.22	$9.82	-$0.39	45% 94-116 (210)

Siddhartha1CTR

Invested

$16,485.75

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$575.08

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$5,718.57

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$63.23

Record

48%

3353-3569 (6922)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,730.88

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$30.07

Record

58%

47061-33943 (81004)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$2,318.36

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$21.63

Record

64%

2011-1119 (3130)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$1,164.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

48%

7436-8152 (15588)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$503

Value

$503

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

28611-28439 (57050)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$69.62

Value

$367.54

PnL

+$10.76

Record

51%

26324-24949 (51273)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$9.49

Value

$335.36

PnL

+$3.81

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$324.32

Value

$311.92

PnL

-$12.4

Record

49%

6334-6486 (12820)

ic4cream

Yes

Invested

$287.63

Value

$276.64

PnL

-$2.47

Record

56%

2780-2195 (4975)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$246.41

Value

$254.84

PnL

+$8.42

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$266.53

Value

$125.26

PnL

-$19.77

Record

48%

61881-66739 (128620)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.27

Value

$42.66

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

21404-15543 (36947)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.51

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$0.97

Record

33%

1180-2351 (3531)

big8betz<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.22

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.39

Record

45%

94-116 (210)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (15 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.