Consensus PnL $5.4K · win rate 68% (19–9, n=28) · was PM monthly #541 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$5.4K
Record
19W / 9L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 28 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#835
Source
PM monthly #541
Trades
18
Markets
43
Volume
$7.0M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 9 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?No $65K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?No $30K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No $28K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?No $19K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?No $18K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?No $7.3K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No $6.4K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No $5.1K · now 93¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
Specialties
28 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 71¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where chongchongpanda's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: NFL — held side won 55% of 11 at an average 57¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 0% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 56% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.