Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $44K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$44.1K
$1.5K
95.5¢ → 98.9¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI Siddhartha1 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $12.9K | $12.8K | +$94.18 | 51% 59-57 (116) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $10.8K | $10.8K | -$0.22 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
JA JanAMEX | Noavg 89.3¢ | $9.2K | $10.2K | +$981.47 | 88% 321-44 (365) |
CH chongchongpanda | Noavg 98.5¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | +$27.02 | 76% 16-5 (21) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 86¢ | $2.7K | $3.0K | +$393.26 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $34.06 | $14.52 | -$19.54 | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $5 | $4.94 | -$0.01 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
Invested
$12,929.54
Value
$12.8K
PnL
+$94.18
Record
51%
59-57 (116)
Invested
$10,775.56
Value
$10.8K
PnL
-$0.22
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
Invested
$9,235
Value
$10.2K
PnL
+$981.47
Record
88%
321-44 (365)
Invested
$7,299.17
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$27.02
Record
76%
16-5 (21)
Invested
$2,719.68
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$393.26
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$34.06
Value
$14.52
PnL
-$19.54
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.