Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $102K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$102.3K
$15.3K
94.5¢ → 98.7¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chongchongpanda | Noavg 97.5¢ | $64.3K | $65.1K | +$777.55 | 76% 16-5 (21) |
JA JanAMEX | Noavg 87.3¢ | $27.1K | $29.6K | +$3.4K | 88% 321-44 (365) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$16.97 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
 justdance | Noavg 92.6¢ | $30.6K | $602.7 | +$11.1K | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 84¢ | $211.59 | $248.49 | +$36.9 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $7.04 | $7.07 | +$0.03 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $5 | $4.93 | -$0.03 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
Invested
$64,328.71
Value
$65.1K
PnL
+$777.55
Record
76%
16-5 (21)
Invested
$27,107.11
Value
$29.6K
PnL
+$3.4K
Record
88%
321-44 (365)
Invested
$6,740.24
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$16.97
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
justdanceInvested
$30,615
Value
$602.7
PnL
+$11.1K
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
Invested
$211.59
Value
$248.49
PnL
+$36.9
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$7.04
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.03
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.